The time to repurpose vulnerabilities into working exploits will be measured in hours and there’s nothing you can do about it … except patch.
2021 is already being touted as one of the worst years on record with respect to the volume of zero-day vulnerabilities exploited in the wild. Some cite this as evidence of better detection by the industry while others credit improved disclosure by victims. Others will simply conclude that as the “upside” grows (e.g., REvil demanding $70M or Zerodium paying $2.5M for exploits) so too will the quantity and quality of players. But the scope of these exploitations, the diversity of targeted applications, and ultimately the consequences to organizations were notable as well. As we look to 2022, we expect these factors to drive an increase in the speed at which organizations respond.
If we look back at the past 12 months, we have seen notable breaches that highlight the need for organizations to improve response times:
ProxyLogon. When we first learned in 2020 that roughly 17,000 SolarWinds customers were affected, many reacted in shock at the pure scope of the compromise (it should be noted that a small subset of these customers are believed to have been compromised by follow-on activity). Unfortunately, 2021 brought its own notable increase in volume. Two weeks after Microsoft released a patch for ProxyLogon they reported that 30K Exchange servers were still vulnerable (less conservative estimates had the number at 60K).
ProxyShell. ProxyShell, a collection of three separate vulnerabilities (CVE-2021-31207, CVE-2021-34473 and CVE-2021-34523), was Exchange’s second major event of the year after ProxyLogon. In August, a Black Hat presentation outlining Exchange Server vulnerabilities was followed the next day by the release of an exploit POC, all of which had been patched by Microsoft months earlier in April/May. This analysis of data captured by Shodan one week after the exploit POC was released concluded that over 30K Exchange servers were still vulnerable, noting that the data may have underrepresented the full scope (i.e., Shodan hadn’t had time to scan the full Internet). In summary: patched in the Spring, exploited in the Fall. So, what happened in the interim you ask? The vulnerabilities in the Microsoft Client Access Service were exploited by threat actors who deployed web shells to execute arbitrary code on compromised mobile devices and web browsers.
vCenter Server. Another notable example occurred in May when VMWare released a patch for a remote code execution vulnerability in vCenter Server. This subsequent analysis concluded that over 4,000 systems remained vulnerable one week after the patch was released. Much like Exchange servers, where a typical company will only host a handful of servers, 4,000 vulnerable vCenter servers likely represents thousands of distinct companies.
Kaseya VSA. One bright spot may in fact be the Kaseya VSA breach. On July 2, REvil launched an unprecedented (anyone else tired of that word?) ransomware campaign against public facing VSA servers. Within two days the DIVD CSIRT reported that the number of exposed VSA servers had dropped from 2,200 to 140. Some estimates suggested that around 50 MSPs were compromised, affecting between 800 and 1500 business. While this doesn’t sound like much of a bright spot, patching 94% of the affected systems in two days surely helped reduce the success of REvil copycats.
So, what can we take away from all of this? Well, attackers and security researchers alike will continue to hone their craft until weaponized exploits and POCs are expected within hours of vulnerability disclosure. In turn however, and largely driven by the increased consequences of compromise, we can also expect renewed diligence around asset and patch management. From identifying public facing assets to quickly deploying patches despite potential business disruption, companies will have a renewed focus on reducing their “time to patch.”
Still not convinced? Well, the US government is. Checkout Binding Operational Directive 22-01 published on November 3rd which compels all federal agencies to remediate known exploited vulnerabilities in two weeks or sooner “in the case of grave risk to the Federal Enterprise”. It’s no coincidence that CISA’s known exploited vulnerabilities catalog, which catalogues the vulnerabilities that must be remediated, includes every one of our examples above with a two-week remediation deadline. If the US government can do it, you can too!